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January 15, 2012

Comments

Elaine Turner

The Bank of where? Would that be England? Being serious, we do have a problem here in that just as the Euro has encountered difficulties with different countries being less fiscally continent others, we are now in the ludicrous situation where there is going to be taxation without representation... as the larger country, retaining the pound, with the muscle, we would decide fiscal policy and the Scots would find that they weren't really any more independent than they were before they decided to become independent. So how is that going to work Mr Salmond?

Patsy Sergeant

Does Mr. Salmond intend to join the EU (independently), or is he going to hope to BE part of the EU, but behind the protection of the UK's membership?

If Mr. Salmond does decide to join the EU, he will also be expected to adopt the euro. In that circumstance, he will be expected to contribute a fair amount of that lovely North Sea Oil lolly, into the bottomless coffers of the EU/euro, to help those improvident countries, including France.

It seems to me that Mr. Salmond is playing a game in rose-tinted spectacles of what it would be like to be the Prime Minister of Scotland. He is fed-up with being on the side-lines with no particular status, and not as much clout as he thinks he should have.

I think that Mr. Salmond might get a shock, if he gets his wish, at just how 'heavy' the EU is, and how little HIS country will get back from the EU apart from even more petty regulations and laws, than exist at the moment!

Elaine Turner

BTW is he planning to take the Scottish share of the National Debt unto the Scots as well, or is he planning to walk away from that one. Just asking.

Denis Cooper

It would all depend on what kind of treaty or treaties could be negotiated with the other EU member states to accommodate the separation of one sovereign state, the present UK, into two sovereign states, the residual UK and Scotland.

There would have to be an EU amending treaty if both of those new countries were to end up in the EU, by far the most likely scenario given the present known preferences of the political elites on both sides of the border, or even if one was to be an EU member state and the other was not, in which case the latter would need its own treaty with the EU and its member states.

It would all have to be sorted out before the final separation, during the period after the definitive decision to separate had been taken but before it finally came into legal force.

Thus to take the most likely case, the EU amending treaty would say in effect that from the exact instant of the final separation, say for example at midnight GMT on December 31st 2015, there would be a seamless transition from the present UK being one EU member state to the residual UK and Scotland being two separate EU member states.

It would be massively disruptive in all kinds of ways, including trade, if there were to be any legal hiatus during which the treaty arrangements of either part, or both parts, of the erstwhile UK were left undefined, and so that would not be allowed to happen.

As far as negotiations for that EU amending treaty were concerned, I think it would be a mistake to take anything for granted.

For example, the other EU member states might all agree that Scotland could have a treaty opt-out from ever having to join the euro, like the present UK's treaty opt-out, or at the other extreme some of the other EU member states might insist that neither Scotland nor the residual UK could have a treaty opt-out from the euro.

Ultimo Tiger

Just remember Alex, if Orkney and Shetland stay in the UK, it's still the UK's oil. MWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

JJH

There is no good reason FOR Scotland staying in an OUTDATED Collapsing Union.

The English MOAN about Scotland receiving MORE that they deserve from the Treasury compared to other parts of the UK so that problem will be solved when we become Independent.

Also the anomoly of West Lothian Question will be resolved once and for all.

In any case, the majority of the English don't want Scotland in the Union so the game's up there.

Also, Scotland has had to suffer at the hands of the UK Govt's poor regulation of the City with the consequent ideologiocally driven attacks by the Tories on public spending and State sector employment.

As an SNP MP said at PMQ's last Wed, there are MORE PANDAS IN SCOTLAND than there are Tory MP's so it's no loss to the Tories having an Independent Scotand and Scotland won't have to worry about having policies forced upon it by a Govt and Party that it never has and never will vote for.

The only reason the Labour Party is worried about an Independent Scotland is that they will lose about 40 seats so will struggle to win Govt in England without the Scottish seats. I am sympathetic to this point as it will possibly mean a Tory dominated Uk Government for a very long time. But the English will get the govt they desreve if they vote for the Tories. On the other hand it could be a good thing for the English Labour Party as it will be forced more than ever to try to appeal to a wider electorate to win Govt at Westminster.

The Scottish voted overwhelmingly for The SNP at the last election. In their Manifesto was the policy concerning holding a referendum for an Independent Scotland. No amount of scare tactics by the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems can alter that fact so we should just now get on with the business of holding the Referendum so that the Scottish people can decide.

There are many, many many GOOD reasons why Scotland should be Independent. Many more than NOT.

There is also the problem of the Scots who left Scotland to work in the UK Public and Private Sectors in England and whose INTERESTS are being directly threatened by Scotland no longer being part of a failed UK. Too Bad I say. The interests of those who remain in Scotland outweigh their narrow, slefish interests

An Independent Scotland is both sensible and appropriate for all concerned.

robert

Scotland are welcome to Independence and become the Greece of the Sterling Block.

robert

Salmond is not an economist and has spent his time in local government.
He can have sterling but will have no control over it and will be no better off in controlling monetary policy.

DH

This is not going to be an amicable separation. If approved, it will be a messy divorce. Nobody will get all of what they want or expect, and freedom from England could be an illusion. How long would it be before an independent Edinburgh would, like Eire and Greece, have to have foreign pre-approval of budgets by Berlin? Social and work policy by Brussels? Steep contributions to the EU to support poorer Euro area countries? Would oil profits gained exceed EU contributions and the loss of the Barnett formula support? Would UK wide employers keep large centres in Scotland when most customers are in the rest of the UK?

Scots are some of the most sensible and pragmatic people on earth. They will vote No

I Albion

Unfortunately for England you are right they will vote for Devo max which means they will have every thing that they want and an open cheque book to get what ever else they want,at least if Cameron has anything to do with it. I would say, ( being English )just let them go but of course they won't go ,not even if they get the house and all the furniture and halve of every thing in this divorce the Scots are the winners.

Axstane

Does that mean that we have to recognise Scottish "Sterling". What if we don't? Can any country issue "Sterling" - The Democratic Republic of North Korea? Syria? Argentina? Tuvalu?

Willie

Montenegro adopted the Euro and it neither part of the EU or the Eurozone. If Scotland wants to keep Sterling, it will have to set its own interest rates according to its perceived economic risk value. I suspect that would mean a considerable divergence; higher rates in Scotland sending business South and causing further economic problems. The SNP have to come clean on all sorts of matters, defence in particular, where they are going to have to spend a lot for their security if they secede, further weakening their economy. Oil is not he answer.
If they join the EU alone they will be required to join the Euro in due course anyway.
Quite why anybody would want to join a sinking ship like the EU amazes me, and the Emperor Salmond will quite quickly be seen to have no clothes or an unimpressive view under his kilt to put it in a more Caledonian manner.

Denis Cooper

"If Scotland wants to keep Sterling, it will have to set its own interest rates"

Can't have different official interest rates within a currency area with free movement of capital and no exchange rate risks.

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