Jon Craig analyses today's YouGov poll and compares it with the latest bookmakers' election odds

Comments

[Paul]

The collapse in the conservative lead is clearly NOTHING to do with the conservative campaign being good or bad. It is OBVIOUSLY because the bullying story has actually helped Brown enormously (ridiculous but also predictable - people do not read the details of things - so they just got the message: Brown=strong). That everyone has missed this obvious point is ludicrous. Hopefully those in charge of the tory campaign are not as stupid as everyone else seems to be.

[Tim]

The reason for the drop in the Tory vote is directly linked to their failure to put the EU and immigration into the campaign. Apart from the economy these are the things that most concern the public. No one wants a "Labour lite" Tory government.

[Paul]

Tim - your 'reason' has been the case for the last 2 years if it were true (during which we have had large leads). You do not think the fact that the lead collapsed at exactly the moment that Brown's bullying dominated the airwaves is suspicious - or do you prefer to ignore the evidence and engage in confirmation bias?

[Chris]

Immigration and EU are key to any hope for a Tory victory.

[Super Blue]

The Conservative vote has hardly changed.

The non-Conservative vote is swinging from the LimpDims to Labour. There is little we can do about this - except petition Cleggover to get his finger out.

[Paul]

Superblue - your statement is factually wrong - the lib dem share of vote has been basically unchanged. The shift has been from conservative to labour. Other than that your post is correct though.

[Paul]

Superblue what you say is just not factually correct (take a look at the recent polls) - the shift has been from conservatives to labour (with lib dems staying basically the same or rising slightly).

Or do you have access to private polling that no-one else knows about?

[ds9074]

Chris, when you say "Immigration and EU are key to any hope for a Tory victory" - remember how they worked so well in 2001 and 2005. I'm mean William Hague and save the pound must have produced a huge swing to the Tories? Oh wait no it was another Labour landslide. Going back to that message is NOT the answer however much some people would like to pretent that it is.

[john]

I believe the narrowing of the polls is due to the talk of public expenditure cuts by the Conservatives through the prism of the broadcast media. We know massive cuts are required but that doesn't mean the electorate are ready for them.
The threat of cuts in government spending has been the stick used to beat the Conservatives with ever since I can remember.
I think this week has been the first time Labour has spoken about serious cuts - through Alistair Darling - how much coverage did this get ?
I'd expect the trend we have seen in the polls to continue with Labour the largest party in a minority government.

[phill]

No eu vote = NO TORY VOTE
Wake up and take a look round or keep your head's in the sand ITS ALL ABOUT THE EUSSR

[Peter Hutton]

It's possible that Conservative HQ have decided they don't want to win 4 or 5 years of administering incredibly unpopular cuts; and would rather Labour did the dirty deed.

But - if they do want to win - immigration and the EU are the path to victory. Unfortunately, it's too late to dump Cameron and Osborne for real Tories.

[davidke]

Brown the bully played well for Labour. Expect more of the same. Strong man versus Eton wimp. Tories must stop chortling about Brown's poor table manners.